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The Snowstack

A Opportunistic Pattern Shift May Deliver Early Season Snow

Despite unfavourable drivers, a transient cold outbreak may deliver opening-season snowfall to the Australian Alps.

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The Snowstack
May 20, 2026
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Defying the broader climate drivers and general seasonal outlook, a broad upper-level cool anomaly is set to push through southern Australia, marking a temporary end to the persistent ridging pattern over the next fortnight. Inline with the post last week the system is expected to deliver season-starting snowfall, arriving around the turn of the month.

Weather moves in over the southern end of Kosciususko National Park in June 2023.

Model guidance has struggled in recent days, with competing weather models at times losing coherence on the event. However, recent runs have shown growing confidence in the well-timed system.

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5-day mean anomolies of 500mb, highlighting the peak in cold airmass circa 1-2 June. Source: weathermodels.com/ECMWF
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