Up to a foot of snow on the way as models fall short

Recent snowfall events in May are being undercooked by long range models.

In recent weeks across most major models, we’ve seen a number of systems over-verify throughout the alpine region, this morning’s snowfall is no exception.

Here’s GFS’s forecasted precip for 24 hours, initialised on 19th May 12z. Accompanied by Perisher’s Snow Stake indicating ~20cm of white stuff.

GFS Initialised at 12z 19th May, outlining the 24-hour precip total to 7 am Sunday (AEST/Local). To the right, we see the result of what fell to 8 am Sunday. A reported 20cm of snowfall with the likelihood of deeper falls on the Main Range of NSW.

This said I have to admit that I did notice EC Hir Res di…