The 2024 Winter Season Outlook (Part 1)

A neutral-ENSO phase will kick off the 2024 Southern Winter Season with a potentially-early positive IOD twist.

This is a 2-part piece on the winter outlook for Australia, and New Zealand. Both editions will be published for paid subscribers, a week ahead of the open-access publication.

Part 1

• A stocktake on current climate influences

• Climate driver outlook

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Part 2 (for release week commencing 6/5)

• Broadscale outlook

• Snow season probability

If you're a snow enthusiast from Australia or New Zealand, you're no stranger to the annual anticipation that comes with the arrival of May. As the temperatures begin to plummet, so does the familiar itch of excitement. It's that time of year when you find yourself pondering the perennial question: "Will this be a great snow season?"

We’ve all been here. For some of us, many times before.

Weather and climate will perpetually remain unpredictable despite advanced technology and research. Some rely on historical comparisons, while others trust computer models. Ultimately, weather assessment involves considering facts and probabilities amidst various possible outcomes.

Let’s first take a look at the facts.

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