Long Range: There's a Red Herring in the Tasman

A Tasman Low is projected to have major influence along Australia’s East Coast next week—but be careful what you bank on.

Click to enlarge: Wednesday 25th of June brought with it; blizzard conditions with snow accumulations to 1100m in Southern NSW, with some snowfalls reported down to 800m in the Monaro and 1100m in the Central Tablelands of NSW. Here are some images captured by yours truly off the Alpine Way on the way to Thredbo on Wednesday of this week.

One of the best starts to the Australian Ski Season has been reached as we enter our fourth week of the snow season. Resorts accumulated 35-50cm in the upper reaches of the resorts this week.

Mountain Safety Collective is now reporting ‘Moderate Avalanche Danger‘ in today’s Alpine report, with wind slab danger to be considered in route planning in the high alpine.

Remote sensing suggests Australia and New Zealand, collectively, are enjoying above-average snow extent, against the last 20-year record. Source: GSMAI

The Outlook

There’s a growing murmur about a possible Tasman Low brewing over the next week—one that might just spin up enough moisture and cold air to deliver snow from the east. Current model guidance shows decent consensus on a low deepening off the NSW coast by Tuesday, but the real wildcard lies in what it does next: will it tuck in behind the Alps or peel away harmlessly into the Tasman?

Tasman Lows are notoriously slippery systems to forecast. Born off the subtropical east coast, they need a rare alignment of ingredients—track, timing, and temperature—to make good on their snowy promise. This one’s no exception.

Near-Term Outlook

Things kick off with a fairly benign cold pool drifting up the east coast—a quiet wanderer, nudged along by a blocking high parked over South Australia. This high holds firm for the next few days, guiding the cold pool northward and setting it up for a complex outlook.

ECMWF Ensembles loop (Friday 27th-Monday 30th) demonstrating the dominant ridge in the Bight until Monday. The developing low can be seen transiting down the QLD coast by late in the loop. Source: TropicalTidbits.com/ECMWF EPS

From Tuesday, we can expect to see the low impacting and deepening off the North-Coast of NSW.