The Snowstack

The Snowstack

Long Range Outlook: High Pressure Dominance

El Nino lends itself to stubbornly clear weather patterns across the Aus/NZ region, this year we expect little adjustment to this anticipated outlook.

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The Snowstack
Jun 07, 2026
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Whilst ENSO has its direct impacts centred over the Pacific Basin, thousands of kilometres from the Australian and New Zealand alpine, its teleconnections exert influence well beyond the tropics. Changes in tropical convection ultimately alter the broader hemispheric circulation, influencing the circumpolar pattern that drives winter weather across our region.

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Observed 500 mb in May 2026 compared to a climatological El Niño pattern in May. The shading in the right frame represents the confidence level (%) while contours represent the anomaly. Some obvious signatures presented in May, with an expectation of similar signatures as we enter winter. Source: BOM & JMA, respectively.
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